The DoD Opines on Election '08

One housekeeping item before we delve into the meat of today's post. Be forewarned, this may very well be the last blog entry for the DoD...why? The DoD's editorial staff will be heading to Sin City this weekend for...you guessed it...a bachelor party. And lord knows what's in store for us in the desert. I've been to Vegas on several occasions, although I've limited myself to only one trip a year (at most) because that's really all that my body can handle. That said, this is one of those meaningful bachelor parties; one of those two or three bachelor parties you attend in your life time that is less about the debauchery and more about the person you are celebrating. This one's for you, Nza...and I hope you have a great time.

Ok...on to the issue at hand. You've probably noticed that most of my posts are of a comedic bent, both in topic and commentary, but this one is at least going to attempt to address a "real" issue - the upcoming election. Specifically, an article and associated poll published on Wednesday in the NY Times, entitled "Poll Finds Obama Isn't Closing Divide on Race." (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/us/politics/16poll.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=login) The premise of the article is that there is a clear divide between voters based on race. Wow...that's shocking...right? Before we get right in to it, let me just say that I'm looking at this clearly from a numbers standpoint and my own personal preference (or lack thereof) for either candidate was not (at least intentionally) intended to color the comments that follow...


With that disclaimer....here are my thoughts:
This article frankly doesn't reveal anything that most people not living under a rock shouldn't already be aware of - black voters heavily favor Obama, white voters, not as much. Specifically, 83% of blacks have a favorable view of Obama, while only 31% of whites share the same view. On the flip side, 5% of blacks have a favorable view of McCain, vs. 35% of whites. There's no denying it...that's a big difference and the article effectively decides to use those disparate approval ratings to suggest there is a large racial divide not only in this election, but in this country as well. Ummmmh....I don't see anything novel in that thesis. Rather, I think the author actually failed to focus on what was truly interesting in the statistics...and that is, while more blacks like Obama than whites, there doesn't seem to be whole lot of support for McCain from white voters either. Those statistics I cited above illustrate that larger point, I think, quite well. Let's look again:

Do you View Obama: Favorably, Not Favorable, Undecided, Don't Know Enough
Blacks: 83% favorable, 2% Not Favorable, 9% Undecided, 5% Don't Know Enough
Whites: 31% Favorable, 37% Not Favorable, 26% Undecided, 5% Don't Know Enough

- Takeaway...there is a clear racial line here, which is to be expected...but don't overlook the White undecided vote...which is huge. The Favorable, Unfavorable White Voters won't likely change their stance...whether their reasoning being policy driven or race...but a lot of white folks just don't know what they are doing yet and frankly, unless something ridiculous comes out before November, I'm gonna hazard a guess that a good chunk of those folks will end voting for Obama. Maybe not the majority, but some...so don't give up on us white folks just yet.

The McCain stats I find even more interesting:

Do you View McCain: Favorably, Not Favorable, Undecided, Don't Know Enough
Blacks: 5% favorable, 57% Not Favorable, 25% Undecided, 14% Don't Know Enough
Whites: 35% Favorable, 28% Not Favorable, 27% Undecided, 4% Don't Know Enough

- Takeaway...of course black voters are going to heavily tilt towards Obama (and therefore against McCain). It's nothing personal John...you just happen to be facing an opponent unlike any we've seen before...he's black...and while I'm not a proponent of voting based purely on skin tone, I don't blame black America...this is a seminal event in Black American History. More important though, Senator McCain, is your white voter base...which only 35% sees you in a favorable light...FYI...31% of whites view Obama favorably...statistically, that's a dead heat. So when I take this all in, I'm looking past this notion of racial rift in America because this comes as no surprise to me; we know there is a divide...and it's not just racial; it's economic and it's religious. There always has been and realistically, always will be, to some extent. Perhaps the author's intent was the magnitude, but they picked the wrong issue to poll to gauge that rift...this is the most polarizing issue imaginable. What did you expect? I think the real takeaway from this poll should be a wakeup call to the McCain campaign...